24 august 2010, dipping

Does anyone still think the western world is moving serenely out of recession ? In almost perfect harmony, the positive effects of massive fiscal stimuli around the world are bearing the fruit of modest growth, just as the loud squawking of consequential chickens coming home to roost begins to fill the air. Its the sound of inevitable and necessary fiscal contractions knocking the air out of incipient recoveries and removing the critical confidence factor that will mean consumers pare down spending, growth's last hope. Even in america - uniquely still in the stimulus phase of the cycle due to the luxury of having the world's reserve currency - house sales have slumped, a bad harbinger of worse news to come. Come it must though, and the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. It will be grim, but we will survive and carry on. There are no escapes, no shortcuts, no ways to avoid the pain now for the pleasures of the last years. Any light at the end of the tunnel ? Look east, as china becomes the world's second largest economy...