10 february 2011, ecb runners and riders

Not since the start of the euro in 1998 has anyone picked an ecb president, the eu's most powerful post. Then, they agreed on wim duisenburg, with a succession by jean claude trichet, who steps down in october. Trichet was in so many ways both the perfect candidate - a personifaction of hawkish bundesbankism with french nationality - and the perfect president: part diplomat, part chairman, part politician, all central banker and outstanding intellect. More than anything he was a leader, playing an immeasurable role in establishing the euro. Tomasso padoa schioppa (25 october) was a towering presence in the central banking world, but seeing him at a board meeting with trichet was like watching a boy. Until today, bundesbank president axel weber seemed favourite for these hard to follow shoes. Now we risk a credibility-sapping race as familiar eu arguments over balance and nationality inevitably rear their head. Whilst a german candidacy in 1998 was almost unthinkable, now it is almost inevitable. However, the issing-like presence of stark is already established on the board and so with credibility, credibility and credibility the top 3 qualifications, it will be a central banker through and through, ruling out other german candidates like klaus regling. The ever more chauvinist german politics around the bailout clash with merkel's natural and indeed traditional germanic bent to be kingmaker - ensuring the best, but not a german appointment. So the second most important qualification will be hawkishness; the warm compromise of yves mersch looms. My tip though, despite however many articles that tell you isn't possible: jurgen stark. Politics has a way of trumping iffy interpretations of eurosystem law when it needs to. As to whether it is a good choice, well it ticks all the boxes and he's as rigorous and orthodox as they come, but with leadership qualities so far unproven...