1 january 2012, another bric in the wall

Will 2012 (like 2011 and 2010, see 14 january) be the year of brazil, russia, china, india & the rest ? Yes. China alone is still creating an economy the size of turkey (23 november 2011) each year, and while the brics' clip is slowing, as the western world and especially europe (that's the uk too) dive towards contraction, the differential growth rates will widen. The big question is whether decoupling has yet taken place. Many thought it had in 2008, only to be proved sort-of wrong when their economies dipped in parallel to ours, but then they recovered quicker and faster; since then the processes of stronger domestic demand, and so less reliance on exports to the west, have only accelerated. Though I managed a whole radio interview (1:51) without mentioning this favourite theme, history's largest population shift is probably unstoppable, as more asians, africans, middle easterners and south americans than ever move from rural subsistence to urban agglomerations. Their massively increased productivity is whittling away at the "great divergence" that saw the west leap ahead a couple of centuries ago, not least in places like manchester, through the new technologies of the industrial revolution. Now it is the brics and their acolytes who through adopting techniques and knowledge are converging and indeed overtaking, restoring the old order in the process. The old moniker now belongs to the debt-ridden west, the new to the high-saving growth markets. We are living through the time when demography is reasserting itself and the ability of a couple of dozen mainly small countries to rule the world's economy is passing. Just the us and japan of oecd countries are in the world's top ten, just 5 of the top 20, 11 of the top 50. I suspect therefore that 2012 is the year we'll see more pronounced uncoupling generally, and in particular acceleration of the predictions for when china will become the world's largest economy, timed now for something like 2016, but getting closer by the month.