21 January 2011, will they or won’t they ?

Sign up to a new treaty ? It does, to start with, look like there will certainly be one, probably in march. And whatever the headlines may say, it will be an eu treaty, in every sense of the word. And the thumbscrews are already out: any member state that doesn't sign, won't be able to get a bail-out - which looks more weighty after a very successful auction this week. There are other carrots as well: probably a seat at the eurozone summits, for example. And there's not really so much that is being committed to: a balanced budget rule has always had exceptions, and always will, especially as its the members states that will make the call, not the commission. Looks good though and will help boost confidence, so why not ? Especially as not signing up will have exactly the opposite effect. The number of states needed to sign up for the treaty to enter into force is uncertain: 12 being the number in the current (fourth) draft. Meanwhile, croatia (25 may 2011 ) might well be one of those, as accession, set for july, should finally pass its last hurdle of a referendum tomorrow. Thus, whilst the uk is far from the only sceptic, eurozone finland being another, in the end the strong trend will be that they probably will, if not at first, then at second. Plus ca change.