1 june 2012, yes

Referendums have a habit of getting a no (20 february 2011), but in ireland, when on a european treaty, they usually have a second try to get the right answer, both on nice in 2001 and lisbon in 2008. Then, the fate of the eu pretty much hung on a purist irish constitution that empowers people over parliament but is a process subject to populist pressure. Today though, they resoundingly said yes, in a reluctant vote against greek-style self-seeking victimhood rather than take the medicine; which would have meant more medicine administered more harshly. The vote signals ireland's maturity and is a milestone on their long road back to growth and stability. For europe it is also a minor triumph, for the wonks amongst us, because for the first time there was no power of veto. Only 12 members states need to ratify, and so had ireland voted no, the treaty would still have come into force, but ireland would have excluded itself from the (underwhelming but serious) array of tools, like the esm, that the treaty brings on line to help stabilise the eurozone. The new treaty's architects have finally cracked giving countries a genuine choice, rather than making every vote a gun-against-the-head all-or-nothing. That much is sure, the next bit is not; but the innate optimist within me sees a low-key turning point in a population saying quite loudly that it believes that the euro is going to make it. For some time now the doom-mongers have been making the running. Suboptimal make-do politics in a complex scenario is willfully seen as dereliction and aimlessness, and a break up as inevitable. Francois hollande's victory was seen in that way, with france and germany set to tear consensus apart. That has not happened (7 may 2012) and, as they have done for a long time now, leaders are still ready to do what they need to muddle through to avoid collapse at all costs. The root of stability lies in neutralising greece, and that, as it was in ireland, is in the hands of the people, when they vote on 17 june either to take the medicine for the foot they have shot themselves in (5 november 2011), or head off into the chaos and uncertainty of "out", by which time the euro has hopefully got its big bazooka plans in place to firmly stabilise the new configuration.