22 july 2012, back to the balkan future

A few short years ago, the prognosis for balkan countries joining the eu was good. In the enlargement report of 2006, croatia was on track to join by the end of the decade, macedonia was lining up to be a few years more down the line, montenegro and serbia were making progress, and even albania, kosovo and bosnia were treading a serious long-term path. How times have changed (25, 26 may 2011. Romania and bulgaria joined in 2007, but have since been the leading case for why to go no further. Slovenia made it in 2004, redefining itself from balkan to central european, and croatia, still kind of on track, has not joined yet, and much will continue to slow it down and stop the rest: the battle against turkey made all defences keener; greece, once the poster child for balkan integration is now an utter disgrace; and the crisis it caused has swept all before it. Enlargement, at best, is a distraction. Their best route may in the medium-term may be the emergence of a uk-anchored outer (non euro) ring, which in better times, becomes a champion. Meanwhile, the solution doing the rounds is for a "balkan benelux", with albania, kosovo, macedonia and montenegro building new "mini eu" structures that will one day enable them to join the real thing together. Meanwhile, the virtues of a common market of 8 million people can bring rather more immediate benefits . This is a good idea, although the deep irony is that the benelux took inspiration from the (albeit coercive) "best in class" pan-nation state shared sovereignty model of its time: yugoslavia.