21 february 2016, in or out ?

Despite so much political capital being wasted on so little substance, let's not even pause on the entrails of a piffling deal, but look instead at the question on the ballot. The die seems already cast, with brits set to wake up on 24 june amazed that they've just voted to leave history's strongest ever democratic pooling of sovereignty (see 1 january 2016, the year of leaving). Why should we have stayed ? The union is not perfect, but europe together is very much better off than it would have been without it, as, selfishly, is the uk. Britain joined as the sick man of europe but leaves as a star economic performer of sorts, hard to square with the argument that the eu hobbles us, rather like the oft-repeated slogan that exit will free us to ramp up exports to the rest of the world, like china, and catch up to the mighty german export machine. Yet germany is also in the eu, and isn't even in the "best of both worlds" position we say we want and already have, of being outside the integrationalist bits, schengen and the euro, we seem to find most objectionable. Once our continental colleagues are over the snub, we are told, we will effortlessly retain free access to the internal ("single") market we helped create which is at the centre of our global trade and investment framework, and, by far, destination to more british exports than anywhere else. Not really; bruised and eager to show that exit is ugly and comes at a high price, working out its cost to little england will be tortuous and bad-tempered. In 1994 norway decided not to join and does indeed now have access - but it pays in 83-91% of the uk's per capita contribution; switzerland is less but similar. Neither country has any influence whatsoever on the "acquis communautaire", i.e. the eu rules Britain and the rest impose on them as a condition for internal market access. In 2014 switzerland tried to assert sovereignty, with a referendum that decided to limit eu migration. So far the eu has not agreed, so it's not happened and either switzerland will cave in, or else it will lose open access to the eu market. The uk franchise doesn't help, with european residents of 20 years unable to vote, whilst commonwealth ones of 2 can. Probably the greatest irony is that there's no doubt the union has been going strongly the uk's way for quite some years now, as set out well in the introduction to an excellent article by my old sparring partner jean-claude piris showing just how dreadfully difficult it is going to be to untangle uk membership. Taking a long-term historical sweep, there are 3 main emerging global trade and currency blocs in the world: america, europe and china. Whilst diminished not fatal to be outside one, britain will always have greater control, influence and prosperity by being central and so representing both all its rather good at (free trade, economic liberalism, multilateralist foreign policy, assured diplomacy, a global horizon...) and its own selfish interests in corridors of power increasingly restricted to those key blocs. Yet, here we are, unable to control our emotional intelligence in this age of rage and set to deliver cameron and the establishment a bloody nose, to spite our face. I'm off now to start work on my new article about the details of the uk's withdrawal treaty and the swathes of new english law we'll rapidly need to put in place to fill the vacuum of the eu law we'll be liberated from...