UK
Britain is going through a difficult time, when its sustained ability to punch above its weight, economically and diplomatically, is ebbing. The end of irrational exuberance found the country ill at ease with itself, with rising inequalities and unhealthy nationalism, just when it needs to be fleet-footed in recognising that many of the traditional pillars of its strengths have changed. The need is to recognise other supports and partners and find a new common purpose after the pandemic. I live in hope.
it's the governance, stupid
Some months ago now I was a respondent at a research conference (p6), picking up the themes of 3 papers on how the right governance at the right level positively affects economic growth, "strong, stable governance prioritises, reaps opportunity and deals with challenges..."
Attached File: focusn.pdf
the axe person cometh
Good coverage and editorial in the local newspaper of a report we wrote for manchester's ten leaders on the likely affect of the current spending cuts. They are about to form themselves into a new statutory authority covering nearly 3 million people, so this intelligence is important. We concluded that things will be very grim, but you'd rather be in manchester than anywhere else in northern england. Despite the gloom, good things are afoot and if we stick with the programme, we'll reap the rewards.
Attached File: spending review.pdf
data, data, everywhere
I gave a presentation at a google-sponsored business breakfast aimed at getting businesses on-line, which apparently boosts chances of success by 4 times. What I gained was a better understanding about analytical literacy. There's so much of it around that the potential to replace strategic educated guesswork with much more powerful data analysis is overwhelming, and those that can will be the new royalty. There's a fantastic economist article on this: "when the sloan digital sky survey started work in 2000, its telescope in new mexico collected more data in its first few weeks than had been amassed in the entire history of astronomy. Now, a decade later, its archive contains a whopping 140 terabytes of information. A successor, the large synoptic survey telescope, due to come on stream in chile in 2016, will acquire that quantity of data every five days..."
Attached File: google.pdf
brazil
Brazil has the largest domestic market in south america, and in 2014 is likely to become the world's fifth biggest economy - eclipsing both france and britain. "Once we identified brazil as a target, we looked at the synergies between the brazilian economy and the manchester economy to uncover the exact opportunities," says director of economic strategy at new economy, baron frankal. "There is no point in just sending unprepared politicians to brazil..." (p2)
Attached File: Brazil.pdf
a society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in
What made manchester greater was a combination of a moist climate, imperialism, routes to market like the manchester ship canal and a sustained knack for innovation and marketing, which somewhere along the line was lost to profit-taking, brain drain, an inability to see and seize change and inevitable decline. A crucial ingredient was the existence of an elite that had social capital, money-making zeal, civic pride, responsibility and an ethos to build a just and prosperous society in its own image. This was a central point of my speech to the city's st james club.
Attached File: 100617, St James Manchester.doc
how are we doing ?
This is my periodic "plain talking economist" spot at our board meeting (making it less a bored meeting). The message was of the passing of the baton from west to east and how we must adjust or die; the national debt being symptomic but hugely problematic. You can get more from the manchester monitor but it's the bigger picture that fascinates most. Picked up on radio 4's "beyond westminster"
Attached File: Economic Outlook.pdf
2010, year of moving sideways ?
2009 was not as bad as it might have been, due largely to fiscal and monetary stimulus never before seen. Stability seems the result, even in the labour market. However, the risk is weak recovery and that 2010 is worse than expected. The champagne cork pressure behind pumping up public expenditure and keeping interest rates at record lows will be released, though hopefully in a manageable way. So fasten your seatbelts, but put your foot on the accelerator... You can read the views of manchester's best "experts" here
do economic growth and wellbeing sit well together ?
My two worlds of work, the economy and health, recently collided when I addressed the chairs and chief execs of greater manchester's ten PCTs (that's the folks that buy our healthcare) and did a keynote at a regional health conference. I went down a storm at the latter, rather like whoever it was that followed the beatles on the ed sullivan show, as I was preceeded by a phrophet of our time talking about how aspiring to economic growth was utterly misguided. That nicely cued me up to talk about... how we can drive economic growth. As it happens though, I agree with most of what he said... click here to see the presentation (pressing cancel it if it asks for a password).
equity finance: not me, but...
Unlike everything else on this site, I claim no credit for the writing of this. However, without me it wouldn't have been published: I delivered the resources for its implementation, as we say in publicsectorland. I imagined it, and I made it happen - and actually I'm rather proud. It's the first, I hope, of a long and interesting series... (for more, see here)
Attached File: equity finance.pdf
storm may blow away first rays of sunshine
For every relieved homeowner is one in negative equity; the economy's tiny uptick is dwarfed by the downside risks of the looming end of fiscal stimulus and ensuing public sector cuts... click here or below to read
Attached File: MEN1-september 07.doc