25 may 2011, the 28th state of the union

I have many fond memories of croatia, and still friends there. When briefing on enlargement was part of my job I kept a close eye on its progression to accession (see so much further yet to march), hanging many a potentially tricky treaty revision on the changes that each new country triggers. Such was the inevitability of the enthusiastic croats joining, that when france changed its constitution to block any further enlargement without a referendum (later dropped), croatia was exempt. Years later, talks are dragging, with still only 30 of the 35 "chapters" of the acquis closed. Not so turkey, which started the negotiations on the same day: ankara has managed just one. Whilst croatia is on course to enter in 2013, turkey is still a lifetime away. Croatia though has recently been seized by a bout of anti eu sentiment, as the hague war crimes tribunal gave long prison terms to two hero generals, seen now as victims of the bosnian war (see from dayton to brussels). Tens of thousands took to the streets chanting "go away eu", and a poll showed 60% opposed. This will surely ebb though, as have many other problems. July looks increasingly like an end date for talks, although the vogue for closer inspection may lead to a monitoring period before the eu actually numbers 28. Not so turkey though, as unless the uk does eventually peel away to anchor a looser "outer core", the moment for turkey to join has surely passed and the question is really how to diplomatically wind down the process.