17 march 2012, ice to have

Although pretty much every week in the local press, I am not so often in the economist, the last time but one being about iceland. I used the bankrupt european outpost as an allegory to the uk to wax lyrical about the inevitability of it losing its own currency and eventually joining the euro (ditching the krona - is sterling next ?). Now, it looks that while the first of those presumptions may hold true, the second may not, as so bad is the euro's reputation at the moment, iceland may instead adopt the canadian dollar. This is not quite as mad as it seems (and indeed mirrors a newt gingrich proposal for the uk to join nafta) because trade flows exist, and the loonie can be unilaterally adopted, unlike the euro where iceland would first have to join the eu, with its despised-in-iceland common fisheries policy. Things will come to a head early next year with a referendum on eu membership. I am usually an optimist on such things, but although I think the eu's long term future is safe and indeed strong, it is clearly not looking quite so to many at the moment - and the euro, its strongest element and the big draw for iceland - looks weak. Thus, it may well be outweighed by the generational national survival issue of fish. As I doubt it though, perhaps it will happen...