17 november 2012, oh what a lovely war

It didn't take long for the israel-palestine protagonists to test out obama 2.0. One side of the palestinian leadership was first, with "president" abbas making a measured effort to escape the dead-end parastine status quo by unfreezing their bid for recognition at the united nations (see 8 september 2011, 16 and 30 april 2011). America, not yet ready to move from observer to facilitator, said no. This sharpened global divisions (even the europeans are totally split) and gave the internal initiative, again, to the rejectionist camp led by a resurgent hamas, now further than ever from a once-imagineable shift to the peace camp (how we made the fatal mistake of not talking to hamas). Just as it did after obama's election first time around then, the missile count from gaza into israel started rising, and with an israeli election looming, no prime minister can be seen not to be very strong, least of all netanyahu, and so the irresistible assassination of ahmed al-jaabari and off we go, to war, to war. Missile strikes on tel aviv and jerusalem, an absolutely unprecedented expression of new-found capability, heavily underline the internal need for israeli action in this lose-lose scenario. Operation cast lead in 2008 destroyed hamas capability at a cost of some 1,400 lives; pillar of defence will be bigger and better. However, though america may, to the palestinian's disappointment, play the same passive role this time around, things have significantly shifted closer to home, as is already clear from the visit to gaza of egypt's prime minister. Egypt may yet be a mediator, but one now that starts in the hamas corner. The debate in israel is whether hamas acted from weakness, either losing its ability to control or needing to reassert its credentials, or from strength. I think the latter. Egypt is a big boon, as is the broader context, from free flowing libyan weaponary to the tense iran tinderbox that could make a vicious little middle eastern war an era-defining global one, not least as a struggling global economy would go into freefall. Israel generally, and netanyahu specifically (10 march 2012), are never slow to take advantage of global inaction, and this time the risk of that plunging us all into mayhem is rather higher than it has been for a long, long time. I am not sleeping easily these nights.