Blog

21 november 2012, crystal balling

I thought that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future, was a great woody allen quote, but of course there is nothing new under the sun, as evidenced in my latest newspaper blog, on forecasting. I'm also not sure exactly who successfully predicted nine out of the last five recessions or if it's forecasters or economists who know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn't happen today, and so on. Nate silver perhaps shows that some forecasters have their ignorance better organised than others. But the best quote is one I firmly believe to be true and which advises the strongest caution when working the magic of alchemy that transforms data and information into research and intelligence, "governments love statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn well pleases." The last word though belongs to the poetical logic of voltaire, that the present is pregnant with the future.