26 february 2016, how britain’s next prime-minister was selected

In the heat of battle it is difficult to see what tactics are being deployed to what ends and also what the ultimate outcome will be. Whilst they lost the vote, the scottish nationalists clearly won last year's scottish independence referendum, rising from just 6 members of parliament before, to an all-conquering 50 after. Last weekend's intervention in the eu referendum campaign by boris might not have swung that result, but chances are it swung the one afterwards: for the conservative party leadership. Dwell on two facts. First, whatever happens in june, david cameron has already categorically said he will resign before the next uk general election. That could be soon and abrupt, or could be triumphant and some years away, but it's a racing certainty that by 7 may 2020 he'll be gone. At that point the conservative party will select a new leader, who will almost certainly become prime minister, probably a little way ahead of the election to let the radiance of office so helpful in elections rub off, (not that the same manoeuvre did brown or callaghan any good, though it worked for major). Barring an unknown unknown then - second fact - britain's next prime minister will be chosen by the conservative party's membership. The way the system works is that the parliamentary party chooses two colleagues, who then get to romp up and down the country trying to convince the 150, 000 or so rather aged but more importantly overwhelmingly eurosceptic members, with a high-likelihood the eu will be very much on their minds. Boris, like george, theresa (who surely took a hit by seeming sceptical then coming out for in) and the rest, continues to assiduously court mps, and should they choose him as one of the two - his biggest hurdle, as he's not great close up - the race is over. This is true whatever the referendum result. If britain stays, and so he likely faces victorious george, the membership will be seething; if we're leaving, he'll be the all-conquering hero and there probably won't even be a contest. Boris then is very much looking like the uk's next prime-minister then and quite possibly by year-end...