26 may 2014, eurosclerosis

So the results are in, as expected (see the tide rises, the tide falls, below) but more so. The front nationale's win in france is spectacular, as is ukip's, for all that it was predicted. There are other big stories, though overall the mainstream pro-european parties keep a clear majority and the extremes are unlikely to unite. This suggests that beyond a high-pitched media period, europe will set about its new cycle of work, starting with key appointments, which the national governments (not "europe") make. Well-known to me as former head of the eurogroup, jean-claude juncker (see in celebration of, 18 june 2011) may or may not get the most important post of commission president. It is worth noting he is a former prime-minister and a man of the council (governments), not the parliament, despite their laying claim. The election results head off the risk that the commission will be more politicised: this will remain a grand coalition at the eu-level. These landmark elections though are significant, but its transmission mechanism is through national politics. Even merkel will be warier of her eurosceptic flank (in germany mild-mannered professors took a stunning, though still small, 7 seats), let alone hollande, anyway-sceptic cameron and a further dozen states, making progression on federalism in this term, even for the euro area, harder. It raises the chances of a uk-led decentralisation getting traction, for which all eyes will be on merkel, especially if cameron starts deploying his caucus to shore up merkel's epp in the parliament, despite leaving a few years ago. Compromising on free movement (on which sarkozy looks to be making his comeback pitch, saying much about france's solidifying outsider status) is surely off the table, but even there, things like alternative transitional controls for future members will be ok, as might other things that genuinely represent less europe, such as justice or agriculture (a natural anglo-german alliance). From a little englander perspective though, all that is just eurobabble, and if anyone thinks it might swing a referendum in 2017, they are wrong. On the contrary, every event seems to move the uk inexorably toward ending its 40-year experiment with eu membership (see sleepwalking towards the exit, 27 february 2014). Beneath the colourful commentary, that is the simple, strong and searing conclusion of the uk election results.

24 may 2014, the tide rises, the tide falls

This is not america. Yet, political streams there often flow into europe a decade later. So an economist article claiming the political heat is ebbing from the immigration issue is interesting. The tea party's founding idea was shrinking the state (see no deleveraging at home, 24 october 2011), but amongst the fellow traveller issues it co-opted, immigration probably loomed largest; strange in a country built on bringing in the world's tired and poor huddled masses. As recession and hardship swept europe's own masses, so, as you would expect, the political fortunes of the radical and anti-establishment have risen (see of populism, 9 november 2013), as clearly seen in this weekend's european elections, with those parties recording spectacular new high-water marks. Yet, there is reason, and hope, to think that high water-marks these may be. Along with disenchantment with the eu, migration brought about by its open borders has been a central driver, at least in northern places like britain and holland, of this discontent. Yet, the numbers are significantly lower than a decade ago. The difference now is a dismal economy, particularly for those at the bottom, made worse through the lens of rising inequality, a wave ridden by piktetty (though his thesis is flawed). It is not inequality, but the condition of those at the bottom that matters, and there are solid economic omens that although a rise may be slow, that economic stock will at least now stop falling. The sting though will only be gone when the nastiness of the immigration debate is drawn, and that will come from a rising economy too, which actually needs workers to migrate according to labour demand, and where experience shows they are, if not welcomed, at least tolerated. This is far from pre-ordained: the economy needs prolongued growth, and politicians need to turn the debate to real cause and effect, standing up when needed to easily scapegoating migration for a multitude of ills. Whether or not the uk remains in the eu probably rests on whether this sting can be drawn in time. Eventually though it will, and 2014 will hopefully look like an odd moment we need to work harder in the next downturn to avoid.

17 may 2014, narendra begin

I spent most of my final undergraduate year studying india's crucial period of 1919-31, enjoying almost alone the splendours of the indian institute reading room, which I have just now googled to find closed some years ago. Despite that gifting me a lifelong interest and appreciation of all things india, I have not yet managed to visit, my mid-twenties six-months-in-israel, six-months-in-india plan getting waylaid some years on its first leg. There are many political parallels between the two, not least the dominance of the centre left independence party for decades (anc anyone ?), which after a false start in the 1990s looks finally to have come to an end in india with the triumphant victory of narendra modi and the bjp after history's largest ever democratic vote. It reminds me of nothing so much as menachem begin similarly recasting israeli politics in 1977, with his likud victory over the previously dominant labour. Like modi, begin had a deeply chequered past, having been an outright terrorist in the war for independence, masterminding the bombing of british headquarters in jerusalem, and the hanging of 2 british sergeants. Yet, he went on to head the opposition centre-right in israel, becoming prime minister, and it was he that signed the country's first peace deal in 1978 with what was its arch enemy, egypt. All subsequent peace talks originate from that epoch-making camp david source, an "only the right can take on rightist opposition to peace" template that was later echoed in ariel sharon's evacuation of the gaza strip. The indian parallel is of course pakistan, which like israel and palestine, were ethnically-separated twins born violently from the same country in the same year of 1947, and which have fought a series of wars since. Whilst the conflict has for some time been cold not warm, and various initiatives have not failed, there is not yet a proper peace between these two nuclear-armed neighbours, across probably the most volatile border in the world. Modi's basic election promise was economic development, which he must know requires a significantly warmer relationship with india's dangerous neighbour. From india's side at least, he may just be the man capable of delivering it, which would certainly outshine all else as the history of his tenure starts to be written.

11 may 2014, the morning after

Occasionally the eurovision song contest is a big event in our house; and 2014 was one. All the ducks lined up: everyone in, a slow saturday night, no plans, a late dinner, the kids lobbying for a late night, and the family increasingly struggling to find things that we can watch together. Being of course a most european family, there is some natural affinity too, and we don't start with the default cynicism its always had in the uk, even when I remember watching terry wogan as a child. My other half remembers saw it in hungary when abba won, and we watched it together in germany, where the politics of who votes for whom, and the "big 5" coming right at the bottom one year a much-discussed phenomena, at work too. The kids took all it very seriously, scoring each song, as we flitted in and out doing washing and dinner, and they called us together for the critical ones, though there was no israel this year. Despite our biggest sympathies, we were all hugely underwhelmed by hungary, though funnily enough when the voting started it was soon top and stayed there or thereabouts until a good half way through. By contrast the ones we quite liked: iceland, ukraine (who I thought might get a sympathy vote, as much as russia was booed) and germany, went absolutely nowhere. Our favourite (and it's still getting airplay on you tube in the kitchen this morning) was france, which came plum bottom with two points, and one of them was ours. Moustache: worth a watch. Three and a half a hours, fun and eurovision almost ended up in the same sentence.

6 may 2014, a year and a hay

A year and a day before the british general election, things are looking pretty good for the main governing party, provided they can get over the acute embarrassment of losing badly to ukip in the european elections. This sober analysis is very much based on an increasingly solid economic recovery, which all signs point to continuing, including the rise in house prices that produces consumer confidence and a feel good factor, at least in the large southern belt where they are being experienced. Help to buy is a real contributant to that, but even more outrageous is the bank of england's help, as it continues to pump ever more billions (£375 and counting) into the economy through quantative easing. The governor, mark carney, recently let the cat out of the bag by saying the bank may not, after all, sell all its holdings - effectively mass monetary financing. This is exactly what a whole tribe of commentators, including my good self (see dread the launching of the bad ship qe2, 21 october 2010) have been saying all along is going to happen. There are a slew of long-term negativities associated with simply cancelling this massive loan, not least that the main beneficiaries are large corporates, banks and big asset holders. That the us fed is following the same policy takes the heat off threadneedle street, but doesn't make it any better. Down the line it's a rotten policy that we are all eventually the worse off for, apart too from the government of the day that can pocket the cash and the boost and make hay.

17 april 2014, and the beast goes on

The ukraine crisis has taken several steps forward, or backward if the concept of ukraine functioning as a viable sovereign state is the objective. A rather soft attempt at a central government show of force backfired spectacularly when armoured personnel carriers sent in were quickly surrendered. The pro-russian forces occupying ever more buildings in "the east" of the country have all the momentum. Whilst clearly russia is complicit, it is clearly too tapping into a strong well of identification with russia that goes back to the perplexity of many russians of the soviet union waking up one day 20 years ago to be told they now lived in the independent state of ukraine. Still umbilically attached to russia until very recently, it didn't really matter all that much. The importance of the november (2013) revolution though is real, and, as timothy garton ash notes, amplified by a neo-soviet combination of violence and the big lie to dismember a neighbouring sovereign state. As he also notes, putin is not without his supporters around the world. To expect a crimea-style invasion is probably a step too far, but with the kiev-based state unable to make its writ run and nato unlikely to support militarily (russian menace being enough to ensure that) the emergence of some combination of south ossetia type "independent states" under the fig-leaf of federalisation of the country looks increasingly like ukraine's fate. This is a split in all but name and a massive blow for the world as we have known it these last 20 years. If georgia was the dress rehearsal, ukraine is becoming the first night - but how long will this play run, and in what venues ?

4 april 2014, timecheck: quarter to trouble

John kerry has put more into the israel-palestinian talks over the last months than anyone since clinton, with dozens of americans shuttling, negotiating, cajoling and even desperately bringing into play sovereign american collateral by offering the release of israeli-spy-in-american jail jonathan pollard. To no avail. Israel stalled on prisoner releases, the palestinians reignited their progress to statehood at the un (see (yet) another (small) step to parastine, 1 december 2012), israel cancelled its prisoner release and the palestinians - well, both sides have proved beyond doubt they were at the table only to humour the americans, with no expectation of ever achieving anything. A decade ago the "peace process" became the alibi replacing peace. Now even that is beyond reach, with the long-drawn out talks and brinkmanship being about prior to process confidence-building measures. Netanyahu has never been in favour of ceding land and mahmoud abbas is seen as a self-serving israeli stooge by most palestinians, who have been denied an election since 2005. Both men have reached the point where the returns on this lost cause are too low. It is israel though that has the most to lose by some way; the palestinians. By contrast, have virtually nothing. Complacent and overconfident, the danger for israel is that the only thing standing between it and the renewed and real momentum gathering behind a new global boycott is america's ability to sustain the belief that israel is a goodie that wants peace. As america now withdraws, having given the process its very best efforts, this fiction is very hard to sustain. At best it is distracted by getting the ultra-orthodox into the army; at worst an insuperable barrier, easily evidenced if you listen to its leaders, such as naftali bennet, its number three, saying "I will do everything in my power to prevent a palestinian state". This total stalemate was entirely predictable, and I was far from alone in doing so (see and so it came to pass, 1 december 2012), as I am in saying the danger of isolation and a boycott that bites is real. Having run out of options to change the status quo, which suits only israel, no-one less than john kerry himself is sounding the alarm, "the risks are very high for israel" he said "people are talking about boycott. That will intensify... Today's status quo absolutely, to a certainty, I promise you 100%, cannot be maintained." He is right, but is israel capable of listening to the one ally whose willful deafness is its only international shield ?

23 march 2014, the bearly new world order

Excellent article in this week's economist, that calls putin's russian aggression in the crimea what it is: bold non-acceptance of the shaky current world order and the consequential plunging of the whole world into a new and highly-uncertain one. I would mesh this with my oft-commented remarks about the old world's inability to integrate the new, mainly china, into its real seats of power, that have left the now-emerged powers less than enthusiastic about the status-quo, and hence largely ambivalent about this step towards its destruction. 1989 and the soviet union's collapse produced a "unipolar moment" for the american "indispensable nation", epitomised by the first Gulf War (see how we made the fatal mistake of not talking to hamas). This quickly though gave way to an era, later embraced by the obama administration, where the usa was still hegemonistic enough to veto action by others, but could not itself succeed without others' acquiescence. When little serbia challenged the order it was stamped on until brought back into line. When medium-sized iran did it, it has at least been held in check and the limits of this influence-without-aggression doctrine are still being tested. When big nuclear-armed russia does it though - houston, we have a problem. The world's feeble and divided response does not bode well for how the old order can cope, adapt or co-opt the new others and re-establish something like international ground rules that all feel bound to act by. The absence of that looks chillingly like the 1930s, the last time no such world order existed. Though cries of "alarmist" go up whenever this comparison gets made, it is not untoward.

Attached File: russia.pdf

21 march 2014, end of another era

Yesterday was the first day of spring, and the last day of my new economy era (see 31 january 2014, up, up and away and other chestnuts). Although work insisted on materialising right to the very end (and is no doubt piling up already in my absence, though that is now for my erstwhile successor), I managed, I hope, in my last weeks to pass on some wisdom of the six years I have spent building and managing our little empire, which I hope over that time has done as much good as I think it has. The name came from an odd voting process many moons ago, and wasn't one that anyone wanted, but I do recall our marketing guru of the time telling us it was just an empty vessel and over time it would become known for whatever we put in it. These years later, how right she was. What the organisation does is extremely well-regarded and held up, rightly so, as a model for what every city needs, in the uk at least. I take as a great achievement building and endlessly nurturing the many, varied and ever-evolving team that does what we do and take great pride in what I have now left behind. Monday saw a touching presentation in the office, and the finale last night was drinks and a splendid farewell dinner at my favourite restaurant in the city that I do feel I have now left some mark on.

Attached File: Dad's Invite (PDF).pdf

Attached File: Baron_Menu.pdf

Attached File: name plate.pdf

12 march 2014, ukraine, minus a bit

Though we obsess about it, europe rarely deserves global geopolitical headlines. Ukraine though, is an exception. The baltic states were desperate to join the eu in the 1990s because it enabled them, like drunken boxers, to pull the rope over their heads and step out of the ring to the promised land that for all europe's many faults they still enjoy. Ukraine had no such luck, and remained from that day to this in the vague netherland that is soviet union post-sovereignty. For most russians the crimea always was and always will be part of russia, but it was tolerable having it nominally in the ukraine, as long as russia retained sufficient influence in its "near abroad". The day that went was the day they needed somewhat more control, and there are no armies that will be pushing them out, leaving it like transnistria, like south ossetia and like abhazia what some call frozen conflicts and others simply russia. In huntington's seminal and fantastic clash of civilsations, ukraine lies on a fault line between two (see how we made the fatal mistake of not talking to hamas): the slavic-orthodox and the western. Geographically, ukraine is in europe, which reaches north to the arctic sea, west to the atlantic, south to the mediterranean and east to a line generally taken to follow the urals, the emba, the kuma-manych depression and then the caspian, black, aegean and mediterranean seas. Politically, joining europe will be the work of generations.

Previous 10 Results Next 10 Results