19 february 2017, not there yet

Well obviously he-who-must-not-be-remained got there before me (well done, tony), but I'll happily jump on that bandwagon, as just like the last-tory-remainer standing ken clarke, I too somehow missed out on that great epiphany on 24 june that convinced so many other people that despite what they may have thought previously, leaving the eu is not such a bad idea after all. It is. And if staying in is the right thing to do, then it's worth fighting for. The 48% have not yet given up. Though hsbc and various european orchestras may not yet presage the great exodus, there is no doubt that things cannot be better afterwards for those that want to encourage liberal, create, innovative people, of whatever nationality, to congregate in the uk and do their thing. Similarly, as peter mandelson said just this morning, trade, at least with the eu, cannot be better afterwards, it's just a question of how much worse and what we get in return; potentially nothing. Andrew marr made a a pithy point when interviewing liz truss immediately afterwards. Though she supported remain, she conceded she had changed her mind - so shouldn't the people have the right to change their mind too ? It's a shame that blair is such damaged goods in the public eye, as he remains britain's most eloquent and rational leader. The people do have a right to change their mind he asserted and it is the task of those who think brexit wrong to persuade them to do so. "I don't know if we can succeed" he said, "but I do know we will suffer a rancorous verdict from future generations if we do not try". He talks about the surreal nature of the curious absence of a big argument as to why brexit continues to be a good idea; the speech is worth reading in full. He goes much further, lining brexit up as a direction of travel against liberty, democracy and the rule of law. "As the world changes and opens up across boundaries of nation and culture, which values will govern the 21st century? Today, for the first time in my adult life, it is not clear that the resolution of this question will be benign." Worth fighting for.

1st february 2017, few frankfurters

"DON'T bring me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses..." I continue to focus on our big event this weekend and remain in denial. Meanwhile, work took me back to frankfurt; a somewhat melancholy return. Although we came back a couple of times after leaving in 2007, it is many years now since I have actually been, although I have tried, with inevitable diminishing returns, to keep in touch with my dwindling band of ecb friends. Many have moved on, across the city to other agencies, to brussels, to london, or beyond. After work I camped out at a restaurant across the road from the sparkling new eurotower, which looks like the architects let themselves go one night on some good drugs and then applied them to the old building. It is spectacular though, if rather unfortunate timing as it worked out, to make such a grand and permanent statement. Outside the bubble, frankfurt seemed rather staid. Eating croissants at a large coffee place, it was cash only, creating a mild panic. Buying a souvenir for the kids, they couldn't take uk cards. The barber I momentarily thought of getting a haircut at closed at 4. Meanwhile, the new ecb is in part of the city that despite my seven years there I don't know at all, so I somehow bypassed that blanket of familiarity I was rather looking forward to pulling over myself. No matter, less reminiscing is probably for the best. The return on my dinner invite was slender (though 100% wonderful). It seems time wears away at connections, as do kids and the day-to-day hassles that make pitching up at short notice quite a high bar. Adds to the melancholy though; life in frankfurt seems a long time ago, although not a continent away. Something else I remain in denial about...

12 january 2017, somewhere over the rainbow

And so that momentous event of 20 january 2017 has passed: my son's 13th birthday. It has been an all-consuming business, so much so that I have hardly noticed the comings and goings on the other side of the atlantic, or maybe I am still trying denial on for size. Life is busy: home, family, work taking up every nook and cranny of my existence. Late nights, early mornings, hardly a moment for reflection or relaxation, or perhaps all this is in fact relaxation of sorts, or at least enjoyment. Our big event (see and the wonderful) is on is 4th february, around which we have wrapped a whole weekend of friends and family, if not from the 4 corners of the world, then at least from several. This will be the last, though certainly not the least, of a string of joyous occasions in our lives, but with two full-blown teenagers on our hands, I have no doubt we will not be short of events. Our first has his gcse's this summer (o-levels in old money), but the spotlight is on the other for now and I am sure he will live up to the hype and enjoy his next few weeks. As will we.

23 december 2016, 2016. Fool stop.

I thought I'd get in early with my "2016, what a year !". So: 2016, what a year ! I predicted it would be the year of leaving (see 1 january 2016). Sad to say I was right, though my crystal ball didn't extend across the atlantic (though my other half's did). John oliver and the rest of us can outrage all we want, but here we are, with that incredible photo of farage in trump's gold lift the photo of the era. This is who we are now. Whilst there isn't, nor is there likely to be, any imminent catastrophe, history has turning points. This was one, and it will have consequences. 1995 was one, at least in my corner of the middle east. When rabin was shot and peres (see 29 september, below) then lost the election to netanyahu, the can-do momentum of oslo, towards a two-state solution, was lost. Slowly but decisively, lobster in a pot style, the direction of travel changed, towards one-state permanence of occupation that 500,000 settlers later we have today. 2016 feels like that. European integration's momentum may have been faltering since 2008, but this year it was existentially-challenged, by refugees from afar and populists from close. That they won in britain meant they could win elsewhere too, confirming this as a decade of stagnation for europe, at best. In britain, brexit demolished labour (see 19 november below). Again, the faltering went back far earlier, but this was the year of crystallisation, from which there looks no turning back from a decade of conservative governments. For today's world, trump raises so many slowburn issues (balkans, anyone ?). It won't take much retreat by america from its role at the centre of a fragile lattice for that world to sag and gentle rips to grow. No other american president has taken office believing the postwar world order washington constructed is one that does not serve america's interests but does it down. It's hard to see 2017 being any better.

21 december 2016, it takes is a village

The world is atwitter with news about trump's new ambassador to israel and their intention to move the israeli embassy in tel aviv to jerusalem. Whilst it shouldn't be, to do so would be a very incendiary move, in what is, almost literally, a tinderbox. The situation, whilst unusually out of the spotlight, is not calm, with deaths, seemingly as ever, of both israelis and palestinians. One of the vicious settler gang that firebombed a palestinian home in the village of douma, killing 3 including an 18-month old baby, was finally brought to trial. As the world has looked away this last while, aghast at syria, exasperated at the israel-palestine conflict's stubborn refusal to submit to compromise, many small steps are being taken to secure the status quo of increasing israeli settlements the world holds to be illegal. The so-called "regulation law" being taken through the knesset (parliament) is unprecedented: it enables the state to retroactively allow settlers to stay on private palestinian land they occupied, which apart from being wrong is an exercise of israeli law that shows clearly a new non-acceptance of the west bank being seen as occupied territory. It crosses a threshold, to quote the eu. Its all profoundly depressing. Israel is a land of such divides and these have worsened incessantly over the last 20 years. They continue to do so and american bravado replacing its absence may very well create another leap in that direction. Seemingly, there's no going back.

19 november 2016, what not to do when you’re not the party

Trump. Moving swiftly on, or back, to brexit. The phoney war continues. In the background, the parties as ever, keenly assessing how their stance is going to play out. Labour, like a rabbit caught in the headlights, seems incapable of firming up its stance, in the hope that by neither being seen to challenge the referendum's "democratic decision" nor too much alienating "the 48%", it has a way through to bernie sanders-like (non) victory. It does not. The reason the scottish nationalist party did and do so very well (see 9 may 2015, 331 not out) is that over the last years, scottish politics has reorientated itself most strongly around a single fulcrum issue: independence. On one side, splendidly alone, sits the snp, so mopping up the almost-half of the electorate that sympathises. The other half are hopelessly split between all the other parties. The reason the conservatives astoundingly came second in the last elections is because those that are anti aren't looking for a cover their bases with some nationalist type argumentation halfway house, but are attracted more strongly to the real deal. There lies the peril for labour in england. In the period to come, brexit looks strongly like being such a fulcrum-issue, so replicating the scenario south of the border where if you want to vote for that, you know who to go to - and it won't be labour. The conservatives are ever more the brexit means brexit means brexit party. That is now their platform. Meanwhile, the libdems have got the memo and are seeking to monopolise the other side of the divide by being unambiguously of "the 48" - so if you do want to stay in the eu, you know who to vote for too. They look to have a very good chance on that basis in the forthcoming richmond by-election. As for labour, stuck in the no-man's land of the brexit middle can only come off if it ceases to be the issue, which looks highly unlikely in the run-up to the next general election, whenever that ends up being.

5 november 2016, brexit begins to bite, a bit

The furore around the british high court deciding parliament must vote on article 50, the trigger that starts the process of leaving the eu (see 3 july 2017, article 50 ways to leave your lover) misses the point. It's relatively straightforward that as when the uk joined, parliament passed the 1972 european communities act, so before a decision that sets in train a process that may lead remorselessly to its repeal, it is logical, even obvious, that parliament must similarly vote. It is worth noting in passing that the torrid, even trumpian, abuse the judges received for simply doing their job, rings of the nasty and vituperative air that led to an mp being murdered during the campaign. Brexit will not though be thwarted by this parliamentary vote. Whilst the snp and the odd ken clarke may well vote against, the great majority of house of commons remainers feel bound by the "I must follow my electorate" doctrine and will vote it through. The labour party is in no shape, and has no inclination, to take a doctrinaire stand they fear would unleash the worst elements of betrayal and disintegration on it. And yet. Like a drop of water on a rock, little by little the hard work, not yet done, of actually working out what leaving the eu means is beginning. While stopping short of blocking it at this point, mps will certainly take the opportunity to prod it and try to cast the government's as yet unformed plans in the worst possible light. The lords, if they get a say, may be even more bold. Scottish politics has become entirely overrun by the question of being for or against independence. As the only party for, the snp has a plurality across the country, meaning it holds 51 of the country's 53 seats, as the against vote is fragmented across the other parties. Whatever theresa may really think, she and her party have no other choice but to seek to become the party of brexit and gain a similar plurality across england, given that around 420 of its (with wales) 574 constituencies voted leave. They are doing a good job of it, and would reap the benefits in a general election that will surely come much sooner than 2020.

27 october 2016, what is a leppo ?

So said an american president candidate, though for once not the one you would imagine. Still, a greater indictment of the pitifully low priority the west gives to the slaughter in syria is harder to imagine. Aleppo in particular is a lightning rod for us on our comfy sofas, with maybe a quarter of its more than a million population under endless syrian and russian bombs, alongside street-by-street terror, starvation and medical deprivation. It would be the srebrenica of our time, except the death toll there was some 7000, whereas aleppo's is many times that and counting; srebrenica lasted days, aleppo years. And in srebrenica, at least there was an international force trying (albeit failing dismally) to protect those european civilians. Their arab counterparts have been totally abandoned. For the perpetrators of srebrenica, at least, at last, came some justice, through the ictfy in the hague. Its standing successor, the international criminal court, is now on the brink of collapse, as led by a rotten pretoria, one african country another looks to pull out. So even after the fact, the victims of aleppo may not even have the prospect of redress. Aleppo is a big, bloody stain on us all, fiddling around brexit as syria burns. Big power politics is back, with conflict subsumed in the realpolitik of one of its main providers offered safe harbour on its way to add more oxygen to the flames. It's no wonder syrians are fleeing anywhere they can, but quite a wonder we have the global wherewithal to do so little about it; criminal negligence surely. That's what aleppo is.

29 september 2016, shimon

Netanyahu (see 18 april 2015, bibin there, done that) was the arch rival of peres, but for once had an appropriate remark, that yesterday was the first in the history of the state of israel without shimon. Would that he had been so eloquent in the vicious and virulent remarks he made and tolerated in the days that led, directly, to the assassination of rabin, peres's other long-time rival but by then, finally, friend, lauded as a brother-in-arms in the very last speech he ever made, the night he was shot. I was in the square that night, weeping with the rest, understanding that israel has somehow changed. As he was at almost every junction in israel's history, peres was instrumental both before and after that night, in the signing of the state's best chance at peace, oslo, and in its implementation in the face of horrendous resistance, right through until he lost the election to netanyahu, under whom peace is, and seemingly always will be, a lost aspiration - read and that's how it ended. Our eldest's middle name is shimon, after peres of course, such was his presence in earlier life, as a paradigm of pragmatic peacemaking; I saw him up close many times. When I listened to him in london, just as the second intifada broke out, his bewailing and blame for arafat, whose hand he once so famously held, was jarring, so much more as he followed through to become aid and fig leaf to sharon, once the antithesis of all peres seemed to stand for, at least from afar. And yet, between these giants of a bygone age was certainly more in common that divided them. Theirs were dreams of a new and sustainable jewish state, even if they had different visions of what that might look like. None of their visions are the israel of tomorrow - those, if they exist, are ours.

12 september 2016, of copenhagen, calais and canterbury

Saw the wonderful performance of the pianist of willesden lane at the weekend; well worth the watch. It resonated both as we lived just the other end of the very same lane, but also, for everyone, because of its relevance to so many themes of the day. Lucky enough to speak to the author and star afterwards, daughter of the kindertransport refugee the play was about, hers was a paean to the generosity of the british people that took in 10, 000 children. Whither that generosity now was the question no-one asked. It would though have been a little harsh. Not only because it wasn't a question for mona, but also because a legitimate view is that britain has still been exceptionally generous these last years, even in the very different world, of rather selfish and indulgent individualism as opposed to wartime collectivism when so much was so transient anyway. For all that though, britain has taken in over 7 million migrants and refugees over the last 15 years, more than 300, 000 every single year since 1994 (though before getting too caught up in numbers, not all stayed). In 2015 it was over 600, 000 (of which the vast majority were migrants and some 39, 000 refugees). Granted, this is well down the scale from the kindness of strangers welcoming children into their homes and families and caring for them for life, but it is nonetheless an astounding mass of generosity somehow, and sadly one more in keeping with a modern society of each to their own, paying their taxes, minding their own business. We also live today with the brutal transparency of relentless modern-day media that give such succour and platforms to grumbles, hate and sensation. Borgen chronicles the descent of denmark from the international paragon of virtue that, fairytale-like, resolutely protected and saved its jewish community from nazi extermination to mean-spirited refugee-basher of the age that confiscates personal valuables from those fleeing war and destitution if they dare to find their way to the danish border. Britain is not yet far down that road. Yet, it is a moot point then whether its generous absorption capacity that the lonely then loved willesden pianist experienced has been diminished or has just reached its limits.

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